MVR Surveys

A twenty-two question survey of key uncertainties in the Metaverse future was developed and administered to our 50 summit experts (30 responded) and also briefly posted for public input at the MVR website (115 to 136 responded).

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1. In 2016, U.S. law will require U.S.-based 3D world providers to employ any of a variety of third-party 'verified' digital identity systems.

Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 3.10

Website Survey
N = 136
Mean = 2.99

2. In 2016, the most popular global 3D worlds (by user base) will allow the importing of user trust and reputation rating systems from a variety of other online environments.

Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 3.87

Website Survey
N = 134
Mean = 3.94

3. By 2016, U.S. courts will rule that U.S. banking laws apply to the management and exchange of virtual economic assets in some synthetic worlds and to their related financial markets.

Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 3.73

Website Survey
N = 132
Mean = 3.48

4. By 2016, U.S. regulators will rule that U.S. securities and investment laws apply to at least some 3D world stock exchanges or investment markets.

Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 3.57

Website Survey
N = 133
Mean = 3.35

5. By 2016 we will have seen an internet-type financial boom-and-bust cycle in the U.S., including a loss of more than 50% of stock value, occur with at least one publicly traded index of virtual world companies.

Summit Survey
N = 29
Mean = 3.17

Website Survey
N = 132
Mean = 3.23

6. Within the next five years, a leading global web company will launch, or buy and launch, a 3D virtual world where users are encouraged  to engage in economic transactions and own as legal property products they create in the world.

Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 4.20

Website Survey
N = 133
Mean = 4.18

7. In 2016, to what degree will the declaration and taxation of 3D world assets be addressed in U.S. federal, state, or local tax codes?

Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 1.90

Website Survey
N = 132
Mean = 1.73

8. In 2016, what percentage of global 3D virtual world and game commerce will occur in worlds that are operated under each of the following business models?

Summit Survey Website Survey
Open Source
Proprietary

9. In 2016, what percentage of global 3D virtual world and game commerce will occur under each of the following content development models?

Summit Survey Website Survey  
Worlds and games with primarily (by total objects in world/game) user-created content
Worlds and games with primarily (by total objects in world/game) professionally-created content

10. In 2016, what percentage of global video, TV, and film commerce will occur on each of the following delivery platforms?

Summit Survey Website Survey  
Carriers that are open access/competitive

Carriers that are proprietary/monopoly

11. In 2016, what percentage of global video, TV, and film commerce will occur under each of the following content development models?

Summit Survey Website Survey  
Video, TV and film with primarily user-created content

Video, TV and film with primarily professionally-created content

12. In 2016, what percentage of global mobile device users will have always-on broadband internet accessibility from their devices?

Summit Survey Website Survey
N = 28
Mean = 81%

N = 112
Mean = 79%

13. In 2016, what percentage of U.S. automobiles will have at least partially 3D automobile navigation systems?

Summit Survey Website Survey
N = 27
Mean = 41%

N = 111
Mean = 36%

14. In 2016, what percentage of the U.S. population ages 13-30  will allow their trusted group to view 3D images of what they are doing in realtime (through wearable cameras) at least once a month, and to be able to give feedback or advice?

Summit Survey Website Survey
N = 28
Mean = 29%

N = 111
Mean = 36%

15. In 2016, what percentage of the U.S. population ages 13-30 will use 'lifelog' systems during significant portions of their lives?

Summit Survey Website Survey
N = 28
Mean = 24%

N = 111
Mean = 32%

16. In 2016, when distributed work groups in more developed countries (MDCs) are collaborating online, what percentage of the time will they use voice-enabled 3D applications as opposed to 2D-only collaboration software?

Summit Survey Website Survey
N = 28
Mean = 47%

N = 111
Mean = 53%

17. In 2016, what percentage of internet users in more developed countries (MDCs) will use an interactive 3D avatar at least once a week for any purpose other than games and entertainment, including socializing, communication, creativity, education, barter, commerce, exercise, etc?

Summit Survey Website Survey
N = 28
Mean = 50%

N = 112
Mean = 52%

18. In 2016, what percentage of U.S. households will have each of the following applications available in their home media center/console/PC?

Summit Survey

a. Interactive internet-based television/video N = 28 Mean = 71%
b. 3D teleconferencing N = 28 Mean = 44%
c. 3D virtual worlds and MMO games N = 28 Mean = 68%

Website Survey

a. Interactive internet-based television/video N = 110 Mean = 73%
b. 3D teleconferencing N = 110 Mean = 48%
c. 3D virtual worlds and MMO games N = 110 Mean = 64%

 

19. For users in the U.S., when will the average query length used in leading search applications grow to seven words (voice or text)?

Summit Survey

Website Survey

20. When do you expect to see either a leading global political or economic body advocate unrestricted access to globally shared virtual worlds as a recommended international policy or liberalization guideline?

Summit Survey

Website Survey

 

21. In 2016, of the top 100 global 3D-enhanced online environments how many belong in each of the following interoperability categories?

Summit Survey Website Survey  
Strongly Interoperable
Mildly Interoperable
Walled Gardens

22.  2016, how many hours per week (0-20+) will a typical member of the U.S. population ages 13-30 use interactive, internet-accessing, 3D visual environments for EACH of the following activities?

Summit Survey

Social Entertainment and Communication N = 24 Mean = 10.5
Income Production N = 24 Mean = 8.5
Solo Entertainment N = 24 Mean = 7.4
Education and Creativity N = 24 Mean = 5.6
e-Commerce N = 24 Mean = 3.9
Navigation N = 24 Mean = 3.4
Exercise N = 24 Mean = 1.7
Assessment N = 24 Mean = 1.3

Website Survey

Social Entertainment and Communication N = 93 Mean = 12.5
Income Production N = 90 Mean = 11.6
Solo Entertainment N = 94 Mean = 9.1
Education and Creativity N = 91 Mean = 9.0
e-Commerce N = 90 Mean = 5.5
Navigation N = 86 Mean = 3.6
Exercise N = 87 Mean = 3.0
Assessment N = 85 Mean = 2.1

 

Citation: Smart, J.M., Cascio, J. and Paffendorf, J., Metaverse Roadmap Overview, 2007.
2007. Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

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