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Roadmap 2016


Summit Agenda
Thursday Night Reception
6:00 - 9:00PM

An informal and optional gathering at the Palo Alto Crowne Plaza Hotel Lounge (4920 El Camino Real, Palo Alto, CA 94306, Directions). Share your latest projects, bring demos, meet your fellow Roadmappers. Also joining us will be attendees from SDForum's Virtual Worlds event. Generously hosted by Millions of Us.

Friday May 5

Day 1

Saturday May 6

Day 2

Friday May 5 Day 1
8:30 - 9:00AM Continental Breakfast and Registration - Entry Hall, International Building, SRI International

9:00 - 9:45

Bridget Agabra

Welcome and Overview

Bridget Agabra
Metaverse Roadmap Project Manager, ASF. Welcome and Orientation.

Jerry Paffendorf
Research Director, ASF. Brief overview of summit goals and mechanics, project possibility space, exciting recent developments.

Guy Garnett
Director, Cultural Computing Program, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. An academic perspective on metaverse development.

Edward Castronova (via phone)
Author, Synthetic Worlds; Director of Graduate Studies, Dept of Telecom, University of Indiana; Founder, Arden Institute. Thoughts on the value and context of this gathering.

Sibley Verbeck
CEO, The Electric Sheep Company. Why ESC supports collaborative foresight in the metaverse space.

[Summit Recordings Note: Excepting our podcast session on Saturday, and any voluntary interviews with Janna Anderson and John Swords over the two days, summit audio recordings are for idea collection only. They will NOT be released to the public. Any video recording in general session will be for brief excerpts (montage) only.]


9:45 - 10:30

Bridget Agabra

Attendees are asked to stand in place and give brief, one minute introductions of themselves and their metaverse interests. Example: "I'm Tracy Millon, I am editor of Virtual Life. I am interested in moving identities between virtual worlds, etc."


10:30 - 11:15

Michael Leibhold
Institute for the Future

"Implications and Technologies of a Geospatial Web as a Platform for Pervasive and Ubiquitious Computing, and Thoughts on Visioning and Foresight in a Metaverse Context."

11:15 - 12:30PM

John Smart
Jerry Paffendorf

Roadmap Inputs - Intro and Examples (Plenary)
As a whole community (in "plenary"), we'll step through the four topic areas and eighteen "catch-all" categories we are using as inputs and a framework for the inaugural roadmap. An introduction, definition and brief example will be given for each. After the intro, we'll have two minutes with each category to see if we can generate an additional input (or more) relevant to the map. For any submission, source citations are always welcome, if any come to mind.

12:30 - 1:30 Lunch - Deli Buffet, Exhibit Hall

1:30 - 3:30

Jerry Paffendorf

Future Fragments - Forecast and Mini-Scenario Brainstorming (Breakouts)
Participants will be assigned to interdisciplinary groups and asked to select at least one recorder (scribe) for the group (scribe with laptop preferred). You'll have two hours to brainstorm any of the eight forecast inputs except #5. Vision Statements. For the first hour, we'll ask you to think about metaverse-relevant plans (currently being executed, not proposals), cycles, trend extrapolations, and predictions (yours or others). For the second, we'd like you to generate some mini-scenarios ("slices of life" in the future) and perhaps a few of their implications. All of these "future fragments" will be catalogued and a month from now you'll be asked to vote on your favorites for inclusion in the map.

Inputs can be recorded as bulleted ideas or headlines, or be elaborated with a few brief sentences explaining, justifying, or sketching out a chain of consequences or events. Emphasis here is on idea generation, with critique as a secondary objective. When a participant is describing an input, mild challenge may improve its quality, but try to primarily ask clarifying questions, offer edits, qualifications, etc. Don't seek total group agreement on each.

Categorize scenarios in any of three time-scales: expected within 2 years (short-term), 5 years (medium-term), or 10 years (long-term/blue sky). For scenarios farther than 10 years out, focus on the part you would expect to see within the 10 year timeframe. Mini-Scenario Examples: "Google starts spidering gamespace," "African countries provide a new synthetic world workforce," "New family dynamics: teen and pre-teen virtual entrepreneurs are earning more than their parents," "A virtual world seeks acceptance into the UN," (or, not shying away from the negative scenarios) "Skinheads create game worlds to hunt and maim gays," "California Attorney General shuts down Sony servers for failure to collect sales tax on ingame purchases."


3:30 - 4:00

Jerry Paffendorf

Forecast and Scenario Sharing (Plenary)
Group scribes or their designees will present the most notable, surprising, and wildest of their future fragments to the summit community in plenary, 5 mins per group.


4:00 - 4:15



4:15 - 5:15

John Smart
Jerry Paffendorf

Building a Metaverse Vision (Breakouts)
Participants will be grouped by broadly related affiliations and asked to develop, as a group, a brief (2-4 paragraphs), motivating yet achievable Vision Statement, addressing the question, "What is the Global State of the Metaverse in 2016, and Where Could It Go From There?"

If areas of disagreeing vision emerge which can't both be incorporated into a broader common vision (they often can), try to document each as valid Schools of Thought, peacefully coexisting within the vision. Groups can continue collaborating on their vision statements throughout the evening, for presentation in the morning.



Dinner, SRI
Buffet-style reception with wine and beer, generously hosted by Multiverse



Informal Evening Discussions, Crowne Plaza Cabana Hotel Lounge
Collaborate on your vision statements, hang out, engage in open space discussions or presentations, on topics of your choice.

Saturday May 6 Day 2
8:30 - 9:00AM

Continental Breakfast, Entry Hall, International Building, SRI


9:00 - 9:10

Randal Moss

Metaverse Institutional Visioning - The American Cancer Society
Randal Moss is Manager of Futuring and Innovation-Based Strategies for the American Cancer Society, a nationwide nonprofit community-based voluntary health organization. He will discuss the internal vision his department has developed with regard to the promise of the metaverse for health support groups, education and prevention, philanthropy, and virtual community, initiatives developed from the vision to date, and thoughts for the future.


9:10 - 10:30

John Smart
Jerry Paffendorf

Vision Presentations
Scribes from each affiliation group will present their common Vision Statements, including any divergent Schools of Thought. We'll ask the groups for clarification of each as they are presented, and note commonalities and differences among the set. (10-15 mins/group).


10:30 - 12:00PM

John Smart
Jerry Paffendorf

Pathways to the 3D Web - Brainstorming (Breakouts)
The same affiliation groups from Friday will break out again, this time looking at the last six input categories, which consider pathways to the visions just expressed. What Issues and Choices, or Ideas and Proposals (potential plans) are relevant to achieving the vision? What R&D Challenges/Problems are there to be solved? Would these be better solved competitively (by the market) or precompetitively (by everything else, including pooled industry research efforts)? What Key Uncertainties would it be helpful to clarify between paths?

Inputs can be recorded as bulleted ideas or headlines, or be elaborated with a few brief sentences explaining, justifying, or sketching out a chain of consequences or events. Emphasis here is on idea generation, with critique as a secondary objective. When a participant is describing an input, mild challenge may improve its quality, but try to primarily ask clarifying questions, offer edits, qualifications, etc. Don't seek total group agreement on each.

12:00 - 1:00 Lunch -Deli Buffet, Entry Hall

1:00 - 2:30

John Smart
Jerry Paffendorf

Pathways to the 3D Web - Reporting and Discussion
The scribe(s) in each group will report out their most notable, interesting, or challenging submissions. Whole room discussion, clarification, and constructive critique will ensue. What additional information or editing would improve the value of each input? How can ASF staff get that information? (10-15 minutes per group).


2:45 - 3:45

Jerry Paffendorf

Teatime in the Metaverse - Group Podcasts
[Note: Unlike the rest of our Summit, this session's edited audio transcript will be released to the public.]
Considering such issues as technology, demographics, politics, economy and law, participants will break out into small groups of their choosing to give their visions of daily life in the metaverse circa 2016, as a way to synthesize roadmap discussions and create a predictive time capsule.

What will a day in the life of a citizen of the metaverse be like at its leading edge, as our physical and digital realities continue to converge? To what degree will this also be a global phenomenon? What will be the killer apps for Digital Earth? How many of us will still travel to work? What will the latest metaversal fashion be? What will youth culture look like? What will constitute a social gaffe? What will be some of the most popular 3D websites? MetaAmazon? MetaBay? MetaverseOS? Participants are asked let their imaginations roam, picturing a day in the life of individuals deeply using the 3D web, giving detail when possible. Discussions will be recorded for a special edition of The Metaverse Sessions podcast, and archived for the amusement of those of us living this life 10 years hence.


3:45 - 4:30

John Smart
Jerry Paffendorf

Driving the Roadmap - Short and Long Term Goals
First we'll outline short term goals for the next two months. We'll have a first draft (very rough) set of map inputs for participant feedback within a month. Then we'll put together a second draft in another month, and circulate it even more widely for feedback. The public version will released three months from now, in mid-Summer. We'l do our best to circulate it widely, both within the 3D web community and to the press. We have funding to take us only that far, at present, so we'll review existing opportunities for roadmap support. Your feedback?

Next we'll discuss long term goals: options for Metaverse Roadmap on the Road, including sponsored focus groups to improve specific aspects of the map (avatars, digital identity, geospatial, mobile access, virtual economies, etc.). We'll close with a sketch of a more ambitious goal: A Metaverse Industry Technology Partnership (Metaverse ITP), able to do regular roadmaps and fund precompetitive R&D in science and technology, business and economics, and social and legal policy areas relative to metaverse development. Your advice on our next steps in getting industry buy-in?


4:30 - 4:45PM

Bridget Agabra

Evaluations and Closing
Brief reminder of next steps. Over the next two months you can help us greatly by:

  1. Contributing more inputs on the roadmap wiki
  2. Supplying feedback on the two map draft cycles
  3. Relaying information on any volunteers or sponsors who might want to help with researching, writing, editing, producing, or publicizing the map (including yourself).

Thanks to our distinguished attendees for your generous participation and support!


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